Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States.

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    • Abstract:
      Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
    • Abstract:
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    • Author Affiliations:
      1Global Policy Laboratory, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
      2National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA.
      3Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.
      4Department of Economics and Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
      5Energy Resource Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
      6Rhodium Group, New York, NY, USA.
      7Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
      8Risk Management Solutions, Newark, CA, USA.
      9Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
    • Full Text Word Count:
      6588
    • ISSN:
      0036-8075
    • Accession Number:
      10.1126/science.aal4369
    • Accession Number:
      123879182
  • Citations
    • ABNT:
      SOLOMON HSIANG et al. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science, [s. l.], v. 356, n. 6345, p. 1362–1369, 2017. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 17 jul. 2019.
    • AMA:
      Solomon Hsiang, Kopp R, Jina A, et al. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science. 2017;356(6345):1362-1369. doi:10.1126/science.aal4369.
    • APA:
      Solomon Hsiang, Kopp, R., Jina, A., Rising, J., Delgado, M., Mohan, S., … Houser, T. (2017). Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science, 356(6345), 1362–1369. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4369
    • Chicago/Turabian: Author-Date:
      Solomon Hsiang, Robert Kopp, Amir Jina, James Rising, Michael Delgado, Shashank Mohan, D. J. Rasmussen, et al. 2017. “Estimating Economic Damage from Climate Change in the United States.” Science 356 (6345): 1362–69. doi:10.1126/science.aal4369.
    • Harvard:
      Solomon Hsiang et al. (2017) ‘Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States’, Science, 356(6345), pp. 1362–1369. doi: 10.1126/science.aal4369.
    • Harvard: Australian:
      Solomon Hsiang, Kopp, R, Jina, A, Rising, J, Delgado, M, Mohan, S, Rasmussen, DJ, Muir-Wood, R, Wilson, P, Oppenheimer, M, Larsen, K & Houser, T 2017, ‘Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States’, Science, vol. 356, no. 6345, pp. 1362–1369, viewed 17 July 2019, .
    • MLA:
      Solomon Hsiang, et al. “Estimating Economic Damage from Climate Change in the United States.” Science, vol. 356, no. 6345, June 2017, pp. 1362–1369. EBSCOhost, doi:10.1126/science.aal4369.
    • Chicago/Turabian: Humanities:
      Solomon Hsiang, Robert Kopp, Amir Jina, James Rising, Michael Delgado, Shashank Mohan, D. J. Rasmussen, et al. “Estimating Economic Damage from Climate Change in the United States.” Science 356, no. 6345 (June 30, 2017): 1362–69. doi:10.1126/science.aal4369.
    • Vancouver/ICMJE:
      Solomon Hsiang, Kopp R, Jina A, Rising J, Delgado M, Mohan S, et al. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science [Internet]. 2017 Jun 30 [cited 2019 Jul 17];356(6345):1362–9. Available from: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=asn&AN=123879182&custid=s8280428